The Premier League season shows no signs of becoming predictable as we enter the final phase of the campaign.
Manchester City have regained top spot with a win over Cardiff City, Tottenham have finally returned home and got back to winning way, but Wolverhampton Wanderers were able to pull off another top six shock as they beat Manchester United in midweek.
Fulham and Huddersfield might be relegated but everything is still to play for and it’s setting up for an intense finale.
Most clubs have six matches to go after several games in hand were played this week and we’re still none the wiser about how the final standing will end.
But how would the Premier League table look if it was based on results calculated by ‘Expected Goals’?
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Here at talkSPORT.com we’re always keeping an eye on Understat.com to see how clubs are performing based on their xG stats.
Find out how the stats believe the Premier League SHOULD be shaping up below…
What is expected goals?
- Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
- Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
- The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
- The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.
20. Huddersfield – Real position = 20
Games played – 32
Real points = 14 | Expected points = 25.78
19. Fulham – Real position = 19
Games played – 33
Real points = 17 | Expected points = 29.29
18. Cardiff City – Real position = 18
Games played – 32
Real points = 28Â | Expected points = 30.88
17. Newcastle United – Real position = 14
Games played – 32
Real points = 35 | Expected points = 30.90
16. Brighton & Hove Albion – Real position = 15
Games played – 31
Real points = 33 | Expected points = 31.00
15. West Ham – Real position = 11
Games played – 32
Real points = 42 | Expected points = 35.21
14. Southampton – Real position = 16
Games played – 31
Real points = 33 | Expected points = 35.26
13. Burnley – Real position = 17
Games played – 32
Real points = 33 | Expected points = 35.76
12. Bournemouth – Real position = 12
Games played – 32
Real points = 38 | Expected points = 41.41
11. Watford – Real position = 8
Games played – 32
Real points = 46 | Expected points = 41.97
10. Everton – Real position = 10
Games played – 32
Real points = 43 | Expected points = 42.25
9. Crystal Palace – Real position = 13
Games played – 32
Real points = 36 | Expected points = 44.26
8. Leicester – Real position = 9
Games played – 32
Real points = 44 | Expected points = 47.29
7. Wolverhampton Wanderers – Real position = 7
Games played – 32
Real points = 47 | Expected points = 49.84
6. Arsenal – Real position = 4
Games played – 31
Real points = 63 | Expected points = 50.67
5. Manchester United – Real position = 6
Games played – 32
Real points = 61 | Expected points = 53.34
4. Tottenham – Real position = 3
Games played – 32
Real points = 64 | Expected points = 53.35
3. Chelsea – Real position = 5
Games played – 32
Real points = 63 | Expected points = 59.76
2. Liverpool – Real position = 2
Games played – 32
Real points = 79 | Expected points = 70.60
1. Manchester City – Real position = 1
Games played – 32
Real points = 80 | Expected points = 77.25
Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match. Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
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Meanwhile, at the other end of the table, Brighton & Hove Albion kept their survival hopes up by drawing 0-0 with Wolverhampton Wanderers, who lost ground to Everton in the race for seventh spot. Some results were deserved, others less so. But how would the Premier League table look if it was based on results calculated by 'Expected Goals'?
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But how would the Premier League table look if it was based on results calculated by 'Expected Goals'? Here at talkSPORT.com we're always keeping an eye on Understat.com to see how clubs are performing based on their xG stats. Find out how the stats believe the Premier League SHOULD be shaping up below…
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